2010年7月27日星期二

投资忍者


谈到投资理财,大家都希望能稳赚不赔,有谁会不希望让钱为我们赚钱,助我们更快的累积财富。对许多人而言,成功投资意味着高回酬,却忽略高回酬往往伴随着高风险的事实。投资不应该只是要短线的暴利,而是长期稳定的报酬。


投资的道理其实很简单,简单的就像在过生活,那么,为什么大部分投资人还是亏损,这个原因就在道理简单,却不容易做到。每个人都知道市场涨多了会跌,跌多了会涨,大家都知道要买低卖高,也对「危机入市」朗朗上口。但偏偏在市场下跌时,会被吓坏或当市况热络,在周遭朋友与媒体分析和鼓吹下,而反其道而行──买在高点卖在低点。为什么会这样?说穿了就是贪婪与恐惧的心理因素在做祟。


投资是一种艺术,人的判断才是最重要的。再精确的模式都要人的智慧才能达成完美的决策,因为没有一种操作方式可以放诸四海皆准确。但可以确定的是,百年历史,我们深知市场涨跌如潮起潮落,只要方向正确,并采取符合逻辑的策略,做好听资产配置并分批投入,市场迟早会给予适切回报。


如果不贪心的话,每年只要有平均10%的回酬率,大约每七点二年就可以让资产翻一倍,但绝对不是在市场最热的时候进场。美国知名基金经理人米勒(Bill Miller)是典型的反向投资者,他有两个投资逻辑:「Long Headline Risk,Short Conventional Thinking」,意思是,登在报纸头条标题的风险,是人人都知道的,风险早已反映在股价中,如果这时股价被低估,应该买进。但是如果大家同时看好一样东西,意味着所有看法也都反映在股价中,这时,就应该卖出。简单来说,越多人说好,您越要小心;越多人说坏,您反而要胆子大一点。就是华伦•巴菲特曾说过的一句投资名言:「在别人贪婪时恐惧,在别人恐惧时贪婪。」因为大多数人很疯狂的时候,机会就没这么多,大家都恐惧时,风险就没这么大。


投资人要学会「人追我舍、人弃我捡」,当大家都在抢进的时候,就放手给他们吧!等大家都不看好,市场一片悲观的时候再逢低布局。经济经常都会从衰退中复苏,有耐心的投资者往往都会获得应得的回报。


投资并非不讲技巧地傻买傻卖,智慧型投资者远比投机者更懂得保护自己。在投资这条路上,随时自我警惕,做好基本的功课,适度投调整心态与策略,赚自己可以安心的回酬,即使外在环境变动多剧烈复杂,依然能在投资的世界里怡然自得!

2010年7月20日星期二

秃子故事



宋代著名学者苏东坡和佛印和尚是好朋友,一天,苏东坡去拜访佛印,与佛印相对而坐,苏东坡对佛印开玩笑说:'我看见你是一堆狗屎。'而佛印则微笑说:'我看你是一尊金佛。'


苏东坡觉得自己占了便宜,很是得意。回家以后,苏东坡得意的向妹妹提起这件事,苏小妹说:'哥哥你错了。佛家说'佛心自现',你认为别人是什么,就表示你将自己当成什么。'

2010年7月16日星期五

Pay yourself first(先付钱给自己)


Most people pay everyone else first – landlord, credit-card company, hand phone operator, Income Tax, and so on. Change that equation. In other words, you must adopt the earn-save-spend habit. We try and budget every day, week, month, and year hoping that if we’re careful we’ll have some money left over. Most people feel that they do not have enough income to save so they procrastinate by saying, ‘I will start when I earn more!’. Even if you haven’t said it yourself, you’ve probably heard a relative or a close friend say it. Trust me, this is impossible. Most of the people continue to live paycheck to paycheck regardless of increasing income. According to Parkinson’s Law, the more you earn, the more you spend! The general rule is that as people earn more money, they tend to spend more money. Ask anyone who got a raise last year if their saving actually increased. In almost every case, the answer will be “no.” Why? Because more often than not the more we make, the more we spend! And at the end of the day we’re still broke. Are you tired of this game?

If you’re making a reasonable salary and still find yourself living paycheck to paycheck, the problem almost certainly isn’t your income – it’s your attitude.

Most self-made millionaires make a decision at a young age to “pay themselves first”.

What does this mean? Some people think that “paying yourself first” means taking yourself put to dinner, but it really means putting aside money that you will invest and grow for the rest of your life.


Income - Saving = Expenses

When you get your salary at every end of the month, pay yourself ahead of others by allocating a certain percentage of your salary to saving before paying your bills. In other words, you must adopt the earn-save-spend habit. Through a systematic, disciplined way of controlling your spending habits and set aside a chunk of your income into saving every month and the discipline to be consistent is what helps you succeed. In order to make sure you save that amount, have it automatically taken out of your account before you pay anything else for the month. The first cheque you write every month should be to you and that should go to your savings. And the more we save, the less we spend and the more we can accumulate. You can never “over-save”. The magic formula, whether you earn minimum wages or RM100 an hour, is to save at least one hour a day of your income. A great goal for late starters is two hours a day of income.

To the extent possible, you may want to arrange to have certain amounts taken directly from your paycheck and automatically invested in accounts of your choice. And if you have the money automatically deducted from your check chances are you’ll never even miss it. Find out about standing instruction (S.I) plan that divert money from your checking or savings accounts into unit trust funds or retirement accounts. You’ll get the advantage of dollar-cost averaging: by investing the same amount each month, you buy more when prices are low and less when they are high and reduces the risk of impulsive or unwise spending that will threaten your savings plan. If possible, save more than you think you are going to need to provide yourself with a cushion.

Twenty years from now you’ll be amazed at how rich you are.

2010年7月1日星期四

投资与赌博


投资是一种生活方式。说到投资,不少人觉得这是一个可以发达的方法。


一洗就出、一出就涨,一涨就追、一追就套。一套就急、一急就割,一割就飙、一飙就傻。


作为拿辛苦钱献身股海想要赚钱的你,是不是深有体会,很明白这些感受呢?如果您有这些感受,您无异是在赌博。投资不是赌博:如果你在股市不断进出,只求几个价位的利润,或是不断抛空,进行期权或期货交易,股市对你来说已成了赌场,而你就像赌徒,最终会血本无归。


不要听“贴士”:小道消息听起来好像能赚快钱,但要知道“世上没有免费的午餐”。多少人对寻求预测市场的成功捷径寄予希望,但事实证明这只是投资者一厢情愿的幻想。每当投资者将钱投入他们并不了解的事项之中,就无异于在赌博。比如,您无意中听到同学的太太的朋友在一次聚会上谈论一个某某公司,甚至只是一个的股票代码:“这支股票在最近会有一波暴涨行情”,“据内幕消息,这家公司要进行资产重组”。如果您第二天一早您就迫不及待地委托买入这支股票,您的所作所为就无异于赌博。


每个人都自以为是地认为自己知道一些别人不知道的事情。然而,在某种程度上,面对这种情况,很多投资者都失去了自省的意识。您知道这家公司是做什么的吗?该公司生产什么产品?您是否熟知其竞争对手?该公司去年第四季度的盈利是多少?在您将自己辛苦赚得的钱投向某只“热门”股票之前,您对这家公司应该有太多的问题要问。


请牢牢记住:您用于投机并亏损的每一元钱都无法为您长期创造财富。投机活动无异于赌博。而投资则只要假以时日,耐心有助于您实现财富增长的目标。


如果您最终因为某只股票大热、股价将会上涨因而希望从股市中获利,而不是从公司长期业绩的改善中获益,那么您就是在赌博。只有在您认为这会带来每股利润增加时其才可以成为买入股票的理由。


当您指望别人会支付更高的价格来接你的盘(即所谓的博傻理论)而不是选择明显优质的公司的时候,您已经将自己的安宁生活置于危险之中。除非有人愿意出售,否则你不可能买到股票。你们之中总有一个人是错误的。最可能出错的是谁?是那个已经持有了这只股票,而且想脱手的人,还是那个甚至还没有买到这只股票的人?


也有很多人投资不仅是为了增加他们的财富,而且也是为了享受其中的快乐。这种快乐与想要消遣的赌徒去云顶高原或者拉斯韦加斯,并且在老虎机上花掉几千令吉的情况基本一样,只是他们“玩”的是股票而已。这样做并没有什么错,但是前提是您要知道自己在玩,知道只要您在玩,机会并不会只垂青于您,而且也知道您只能用自己输得起的钱去玩。


投资与投机是如此泾渭分明,假如你选择当一名投资者,那么就请忘记一切投机的诱惑吧。 舍弃机心,讲求本原之道,是值得我们珍视的投资道理。最后送给大家一句话共勉:“投资有风险”是客观存在的,投资者无知才是更大的风险。


巴菲特:影响投资成败的不是经济,而是投资者本身。
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